OCBC Report 3 Mar 14

KEY IDEA UOL Group: Gunning for recurring income UOL reported 4Q13 PATMI of S$189.2m, down 59.2% mostly due to reduced fair value gains on investment properties and a smaller contribution from the property development segment. Excluding non-core items, FY13 core PATMI cumulates to S$334.2, which makes up 97.1% of our full year forecast and is judged to be in line with expectations and slightly below consensus. In terms of the topline, FY13 revenue came in at S$1,058.6, down 7.6% as the contribution from property development fell given that Terrene at Bukit Timah and Waterbank at Dakota achieved TOP in 1Q13 and 2Q13, respectively. The group proposed a total dividend of 20 S-cents, which includes a special dividend of 5 S-cents on top of the first and final dividend of 15 S-cents per share. Maintain BUY with a reduced fair value estimate of S$6.95 (20% RNAV disc.), versus S$7.16 previously, mostly due to lower valuations of listed holdings and softer ASPs in our model.  (Eli Lee) MORE REPORTS Golden Agri-Resources: Better-than-expected FY13 results Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) put in a stronger-than-expected 4Q13 showing, such that FY13 revenue grew 9% to US$6585.0m; this was 5% higher than our forecast and 15% above consensus. FY13 reported net profit though fell 24% to US$311.3m, and core earnings was down 21% at US$318.4m, 17% above our forecast (12% above consensus). GAR declared a final dividend of 0.515 S cent/share, bringing the total to 1.1 S cents (versus 1.19 S cents in FY12). Going forward, management remains largely positive about its prospects, though it notes that competition in China remains intense. In view of the latest results and developments, we opt to increase our FY14 estimates by 2-3% higher. Note that we are also increasing our CPO forecast for 2014 from US$830/ton to US$835. Based on an unchanged 13.5x peg against our new FY14F EPS, our fair value improves slightly from S$0.50 to S$0.515. Maintain HOLD for now. (Carey Wong)

Midas Holdings: FY13 PATMI below our expectations   Midas Holdings reported a 66.3% YoY jump in its 4Q13 revenue to CNY360.1m and a 24.7% increase in PATMI to CNY21.3m, such that FY13 revenue and PATMI rose 32.0% and 71.3% to CNY1,147.6m and CNY47.7m, respectively. Although topline was within our expectations (0.8% above our forecast), PATMI missed by 7.3% due largely to lower-than-estimated share of profits from its associate Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport (NPRT) and larger-than-expected operating expenses. A final DPS of 0.25 S cent was declared, bringing full-year dividends to 0.5 S cent/share, similar to FY12 and our forecast. Looking ahead, Midas remains optimistic on the outlook of China’s rail transport sector over the mid-to-long term. We will provide more details after speaking with management. Maintain BUY on Midas, but our S$0.67 fair value estimate is under review. (Wong Teck Ching Andy) For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.

NEWS HEADLINES - US stocks saw a mixed finish Fri, but ended Feb with strong monthly gains as the S&P 500 notched its 48th record close of the past year. - Development charge rates have been raised by an average of 15% for commercial use and 13% for hotel/hospital use. - Bank lending in Singapore in Jan grew at a slower clip for the second straight month, dragged down by softer growth in the business loan segment. - Fair-value gains from the investment properties of Centurion and its joint venture boosted Centurion Corp's 4Q13 net profit to S$26.9m. - Hong Leong Asia swung into the black with a net profit attributable to equity-holders of S$45.28m for FY13, from a net loss of S$34.91m for FY12. - More visitors at the Shanghai aquarium of Straco Corp resulted in the tourism operator recording net profit of S$5.6m for its 4Q13, up 79% YoY. - Yeo Hiap Seng reported 4Q13 net profit of S$17.07m, up from S$7.75m in 4Q12, due partially to strong contributions from its F&B business.