Thursday, April 24, 2014

DBSVivkers Report 24 Apr 14

Today’s Focus
�� Mapletree Commercial Trust - Storming ahead; upgrade to
BUY, target price raised to S$1.41
�� Mapletree Industrial Trust - Improving portfolio quality;
maintain BUY, target price nudged up to S$1.53
Mapletree Commercial Trust reported a sterling set of FY14
results, beat expectations. 4Q14 DPU grew 12% to 1.95Scts,
translating into FY14 DPU of 7.37Scts (+14% y-o-y). VivoCity
drove strong rental reversions, testament to the Manager’s
active leasing strategy. Upgrade to BUY after adjusting for
higher earnings from Vivo City; raised target price to S$1.41
(Prev S$ 1.32). At current price, the stock offers yields of 6.0%-
6.4% and a total return of 18%.
Mapletree Industrial Trust reported a strong set of 4QFY14
results. 4Q14 DPU of 2.51 Scts (FY14: 9.92 scts) beat
expectations on the back of stronger operations (sustainable
strong rental reversions, high occupancy of 91.3%) and lower
interest expense. Positive rental reversions and inorganic
growth are expected to drive earnings going forward. Maintain
BUY, target price nudged up to S$1.53 (Prev S$ 1.50) after
rolling forward valuation base.
1Q14 profit for Cache Logistics Trust in line; DPU fell 4.2% y-oy
to 2.14 Scts due to a larger share base. Cache offers high
income visibility in rest of 2014 with only 2% of leases expiring.
Cache has also embarked on the largest built-to-suit project for
DHL, a key driver of inorganic growth. We have assumed
Cache would fund this acquisition with debt and expect
gearing to settle at c.36% upon completion (vs 29% currently).
gearing to settle at c.36%. Maintain BUY. The stock is
attractive, offering yields of close to 7.3%-7.7% and a total
return of 16% to our target price of S$1.29.
2Q14 results for Frasers Centrepoint Trust in line, DPU rises 7%
y-o-y to 2.88Scts. Changi City Point (CCP) acquisition to be
completed in May, we expect S$120m of fund raising for CCP.
Maintain BUY, target price S$2.13. The stock is currently
trading at yields of 6.3-6.6%, or 1.0 P/BV.
Capitamall Trust’s 1Q14 results in line. DPU grew 5% to
2.57Scts. The Manager has announced that the Trust will
undertake AEI works at JCube and IMM, actively repositioning
both malls to benefit portfolio over the longer term. Maintain
HOLD, target price S$2.16. The stock is currently trading at
yields of 5.6-5.8%.
US Indices Last Close Pts Chg % Chg
Dow Jones �� 16,501.7 (12.7) (0.1)
S&P �� 1,875.4 (4.2) (0.2)
NASDAQ �� 4,127.0 (34.5) (0.Cool
Regional Indices
ST Index �� 3,258.0 (19.5) (0.6)
ST Small Cap �� 546.5 (3.7) (0.7)
Hang Seng �� 22,509.6 (221.0) (1.0)
HSCEI �� 9,905.6 (125.1) (1.2)
HSCCI �� 4,161.9 (40.9) (1.0)
KLCI �� 1,867.4 0.9 0.0
SET �� 1,423.4 8.3 0.6
JCI �� 4,893.1 (5.1) (0.1)
PCOMP �� 6,769.5 (15.4) (0.2)
KOSPI �� 2,006.8 6.4 0.3
TWSE �� 8,956.9 (17.Cool (0.2)
Nikkei �� 14,546.3 157.5 1.1
STI Index Performance
Singapore
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
100-Day MA
Index
STI
Total Market cap (US$bn) 608
Total Daily Vol (m shrs) 2,042
12m ST Index High 3,454
12m ST Index Low 2,960
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Stock Picks – Large Cap
Rec’n Price (S$)
23 Apr
Target Price
(S$)
ComfortDelgro Buy 2.03 2.19
Global Logistic Properties Buy 2.76 3.31
Keppel Corp Buy 10.63 12.60
Stock Picks – Small Cap
Rec’n Price (S$)
23 Apr
Target Price
(S$)
Goodpack Buy 2.32 2.60
China Merchants Buy 0.96 1.32
Pacific Radiance Ltd Buy 1.065 1.20
Nam Cheong Buy 0.355 0.46
Centurion Corporation Buy 0.73 0.86
Source: DBS Bank
Singapore
Wired Daily
Page 2
Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) reported a c.4% and c.6%
y-o-y decline in gross revenue and NPI to S$28.6m and
S$21.7m respectively. The slight dip in performance were
mainly coming a weaker AUD-SGD exchange rate and
slightly lower occupancy at Central Park property (93.3%),
which was offset by higher rentals achieved for its China
Square Central property post the refurbishment of its office
tower. DPU of 2.05 Scts was declared, + 3% y-o-y. Gearing
remains at c. 37.8%, within management optimal range.
More updates after briefing today.
Earnings for Singapore Exchange were in line with
expectations, on weaker securities markets and flattish
derivatives revenues. Base DPS of 4 Scts declared as
expected. Securities market is expected to remain
unexciting. With recent launches of an enlarged suite of
derivatives products, derivatives will be its saving grace.
Maintain HOLD; target price lowered to S$7.05 (Prev S$
7.15) after cutting earnings by 3-4% over FY14-16F.
StarHub has reversed its decision to charge for 4G access,
while M1 and SingTel are reviewing their pricing plans after
Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) steps in. All three
telcos had been offering 4G as a free value-added service
(VAS) to subscribers. StarHub said last week that it would
begin charging mobile subscribers using its 4G service $2.14
per month from June.
Yangzijiang has entered into an agreement with several
strategic partners to subscribe for up to Rmb150m equity
interest in the capital of Jiangsu New Material Industrial
Venture Capital Enterprise (Limited Partnership) (JNMIV),
thereby making JNMIV an associate of the Company. JNMIV
is practically a private equity fund with expected operational
term of 7 years and paid up capital of approximately
Rmb500m (which Yangzijiang will contribute up to
Rmb150m only). It aims to generate capital gains from
investment in new materials in terms of its technologies,
products, equipment and services. This investment is
immaterial as it represents only <1% of Yangzijiang's NAV
and market cap.
Together with the other two partners, the State Oil
Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR, 65% stake) and
Azerbaijian Investment Company (AIC, 25% stake), Keppel
Corp announces that its 10%-owned associate - Baku
Shipyard has secured its first major contract worth
US$378m from BP Exploration (Shah Deniz), the operator of
the Shah Deniz gas field development, to design and build a
Subsea Construction Vessel (SCV). This contract will not
form part of Keppel's orderbook as Baku Shipyard is just an
associate. However, as Baku Shipyard is relatively new, there
could be pull through orders for Keppel, particularly the
higher value add jobs, to be announced in due course.
Singapore’s March inflation rebound to 1.2% from
February's four-year low of 0.4%, widely expected, though
a shade stronger than the 1.1% market forecast, on the
back of higher food, healthcare, education, recreation and
other services costs. Higher domestic costs - particularly
rising wages - are pushing prices up, and are expected to
continue to do so over the rest of this year. These also
pushed core inflation to 2% last month, from 1.6% in
February, to overtake overall inflation for a fourth
consecutive month.
China's factory activity shrank for the fourth straight month
in April - signalling economic weakness into the second
quarter - a preliminary survey showed yesterday, although
the pace of decline eased, helped by policy steps to arrest
the slowdown. The HSBC/Markit flash Purchasing Managers
Index (PMI) for April rose to 48.3 from March's final reading
of 48.
U.S. stocks dipped and Treasuries rose after data showed
new home sales for March tumbled 14.5% m-o-m, far
worse than consensus expectation for 2.3% gain. Sales of
new U.S. homes plunged in March to 384k, an 8-month
low. The Markit Economics preliminary U.S. manufacturing
index decreased to 55.4 in April from a final reading of 55.5
a month earlier. AT&T Inc. shares fell as more customers
opted to pay full price for smartphones in exchange for
lower bills in the future, putting pressure on profits. Amgen
Inc. shares fell after sales for its best-selling arthritis drug
missed analysts’ estimates. Boeing Co. gained after a boost
in jetliner deliveries helped profit top forecasts. In after
hours trade, Apple shares rose after posting higher-thanestimated
EPS for the fiscal second quarter, raised its
dividend payout and expanded a buyback program.
Facebook said reported better-than-estimated sales and
profit for the first quarter.

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